Football analytics 101: Impress your football fanatic friends even if you’ve never watched the Super Bowl By: Kai Block February 7, 2025 Estimated reading time: 5 minutes. Super Bowl Sunday, aka February 9th, is right around the corner, signaling the end of yet another football season. With the Super Bowl approaching, you may have found yourself invited to watch parties and tailgates. Even if you only go for the snacks, this guide will help you navigate football analytics, so you can impress your friends and keep up in game-day conversations. We’ll cover the core stats and the analytics behind them, showcasing how they’re changing everything from the way we talk about the game to how the game itself is played (from player scouting to real-time decision-making in a game). This season isn’t just about the classic stats like touchdowns and interceptions; it's about expected points added (EPA), completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and yards per play (YPP). These metrics aren’t just abstract numbers—teams and analysts use them to evaluate players, optimize plays, and even predict game outcomes. If that sounded like gibberish to you and your only football knowledge is that Taylor Swift is dating a Kansas City Chiefs tight end, this blog is for you. Become a Data Analyst in as little as 8 weeks! Classes start soon and there's room for you. Sign up Now Football 101: The (absolute) basics For decades, football analysis entailed pretty simple stats like rushing yards or yards per carry, passing touchdowns, quarterback ratings, and more. As technology advanced, so did our appetite for more predictive game insights. Today’s football analytics go far beyond box scores, using advanced modeling and machine learning to evaluate performance. Let’s start with the absolute basics before we introduce more recent and advanced stats. Core stats – Touchdowns, yards, and points The goal in football is to score touchdowns. A touchdown happens when a player brings the ball into the opponent’s endzone. Each touchdown is worth 6 points. After a touchdown, teams can score additional points with a placekick (1 point) or a run or completed pass across the goal line (2 points). You’re going to hear the word “yards" a lot—rushing yards, passing yards, and total yards. Rushing yards are gained by running with the ball, and passing yards are earned through, you guessed it, passing. The total yards combine both. The more yards a team gains, the better their chances of scoring. Fun fact: NFL fields are 100 yards (= 91.4 meters) long. The quarterback rating – What is it and how is it calculated? The quarterback rating (QBR) evaluates a quarterback’s performance on a scale from 0 to 158.3. This numerical value provides a glance into how well they’re playing. So, the higher the QBR, the better the performance. It’s designed to capture efficiency, rewarding accuracy and big plays while penalizing turnovers and missed opportunities. The QBR considers the quarterback’s completion percentage (how many passes they successfully throw to a teammate), yards per attempt (how far the ball travels on average), touchdowns (those sweet, sweet 6-pointers), and interceptions (when the other team steals a pass). Football 102: The basics continued Yards per carry (YPC) – A performance indicator Calculated by dividing the total rushing yards by the number of carries, YPC equates to how many yards a running back gains on average each time they carry the ball. It’s a key stat for evaluating a team’s running game efficiency. The higher the YPC, the more effective the running back is at advancing the ball on the field. For example, a YPC of 5 means each time they touch the ball, they gain 5 yards. So, when someone mentions a player’s YPC, they’re talking about how well that player’s been running the ball. Completion percentage – An accuracy measurement The completion percentage is all about how accurately a quarterback throws the ball. It’s calculated by dividing the number of completed passes by the total number of passes attempted. A high completion percentage means the quarterback is good at getting the ball where it needs to go. Fun fact: In 2023, Patrick Mahomes had a completion percentage of 67.2%, making him one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league. Red zone percentage – Clutch performances The red zone is the area inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, where the pressure is on to score a touchdown. The red zone percentage indicates how often a team scores a touchdown when they’re in this area. A high red zone efficiency means a team converts their opportunities into touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. This value is calculated by dividing the number of touchdowns by the number of red zone opportunities, and teams with high red zone efficiencies are known to capitalize on their scoring chances. This metric can be analyzed as a linear regression to assess trends in performance or inform play decisions, like whether a team should go for it on fourth down or kick a field goal. Football 200: (Slightly) advanced stats Expected points added (EPA) One of the most significant developments in football analytics was the introduction of expected points added. This stat has revolutionized performance evaluation, moving beyond raw yardage to consider situational impact. EPA measures how well a team performs on a play-by-play basis relative to expectation. EPA per play can help assess offensive performance and individual quarterbacks. It's important to consider that the effectiveness of a quarterback is strongly linked to their offense—understanding this relationship will enhance your interpretation of EPA data. For example, a 10-yard pass on 3rd and 2 is more valuable than the same 10-yard pass on 1st and 10 because of its impact on the team's chances of continuing the drive. EPA has become a go-to for evaluating both offensive and defensive performance, as it offers a more nuanced view than traditional stats like total passing yards. It reflects actual impact, not just volume. Are you still with me? Other popular advanced stats: Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): This compares a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to what’s expected based on throw difficulty. It helps distinguish between quarterbacks who excel in easy situations versus those who thrive under pressure. Yards per play (YPP): This measures the average yards gained per play, offering insight into the efficiency of an offence or defence. Success rate: This statistic measures the percentage of plays that achieve the necessary yardage to stay on track for a first down. For example, a run gaining 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down is considered successful. Another area where analytics have made a significant impact is in the evaluation of player performance. For example, teams now use metrics like yards per route run (YPRR) to rate wide receivers, allowing them to identify players who are consistently effective, even if they don’t stack up in traditional stats like receptions or yards. Defensively, teams use metrics like EPA allowed per play to identify weak spots in their coverage or run defence, allowing coaches to make targeted adjustments and better anticipate their opponents’ strategies. The influence of analytics on football operations The impact of analytics isn't limited to on-field performance. They are also considered when players are being scouted and developed. Teams use data to identify undervalued players, optimize salary cap decisions, and refine training regimens. By analyzing performance metrics and comparing them to historical data, scouts can target the most promising prospects and make informed draft decisions. We should be cautious when considering analytics, though. Bill Belichick, regarded as one of the greatest head coaches of all time, has emphasized that while analytics provide valuable insights, they should always be interpreted within the context of the game. They don’t replace traditional knowledge. Ultimately, football is still played on the field, not in a spreadsheet. How to use these stats to gaslight your friends into thinking you know what you’re talking about The power of prediction – Guess the next play How can you use this information to your advantage? Whether you’re drafting your fantasy football league or just trying to hold your own in a sports bar, understanding these basic stats can help you predict what’s going to happen next, making you sound like a pro. For example, if a team has a high red zone efficiency and they’re in the 20, you can predict they’re going to score a touchdown. Alternatively, if a quarterback has a high completion percentage, you can take an educated guess that they go for a pass to pick up the first down. To become the data expert yourself, check out our Data Bootcamps. You can also check out our blog on Analytics in Hockey to see the role of data in hockey. What sport should we break down next?